HIGH-DEF DISC NEWS

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Forecasts/Report_Predicts_Blu-ray,_HD_DVD_to_Co-Exist/971

Report Predicts Blu-ray, HD DVD to Co-Exist
[b]Mon Sep 17, 2007 at 02:11 PM ET
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A new report examining the evolution of the high-def market predicts both next-gen disc formats are here to stay, and that most studios are likely to end up supporting both formats.

Released today by UK-based media analysts Screen Digest, the report includes detailed forecasts of consumer sales and revenues in the US and Europe for both new video formats through 2011, with each predicted to establish a viable installed base.

The report goes on to calculate that format-exclusive studios could be missing out on significant revenues, potentially eschewing over $270 million in consumer spending over 2008 alone.

With so much at stake, Screen Digest expects several single-format studios to reassess their positions in 2008.

Although Paramount's recent decision to exclusively support HD DVD would seem to undermine the report's prediction, Screen Digest says that the move effectively secured HD DVD's immediate future, and cleared the way for the other studios that currently support one platform only to move to an agnostic position without being perceived as the studio solely responsible for prolonging a format war, or for killing off one of the formats.

"Christmas 2007 is going to be critical for the hi-def video business," said Richard Cooper, Screen Digest Video Analyst. "Both formats will be seeking to secure consumer buy-in to their proposition during the critical holiday season but with so much at stake on both sides we think it is highly unlikely that one format will emerge as the 'winner.'

"Once it becomes clear that both formats are gaining customer acceptance, studios that have chosen to support one format over the other will realize that they are missing out on potential sales and will have to decide how long they can afford to place principle over profit."

"We believe that eventually most will decide to offer their titles on both HD DVD and Blu-ray in order to maximize their returns." 

This is my take on the PS3 gaming console.  Upon its much anticipated release, hardcore gaming enthusiasts and SONY fanboys flocked to retailers to spend an exuberant amount of money on the shiny new PS3 and grab as many release titles as they could afford and find at launch.  Within a couple weeks, realizing that there weren't a lot of great titles readily available they began playing around with the cool additional features of the PS3, including the ability to play Blu-Ray movies.  With the obvious lack of gaming titles, they quickly began to buy Blu-Ray discs, most of these consumers were probably completely ignorant of what the hell a Blu-Ray disc was in the first place, but since they had this incredibly expensive piece of hardware collecting dust in the living room, they might as well try to get some kind of use out of it.

Incredibly, Blu-Ray sales within the then stagnant Hi-Def format war (we'll come back to that in a minute) began to outpace HD-DVD.  Now some want to argue that Blu-Ray skews their hardware sales numbers by adding the PS3 into the mix of standalone Blu-Ray player sales and I can see both sides of this argument.  I go on record as saying that in my opinion, more than 99% of the people who purchase the PS3 are doing so as gaming consumers not as hi-def consumers, but ultimately it is just semantics, since the PS3 is a really good Blu-Ray player (in fact it is probably the best Blu-Ray player anyone can buy, which is ridiculous to be honest, since it is meant to be a gaming console, but I digress).  In the end the gaming consumer realizes that he has moved up into the realm of Hi-Def movies, bonus!!!

The thing I can't figure out is why the hell hasn't SONY capitalized upon this fact???  In their television marketing campaign for the PS3, they focus on the hardcore cutting edge of the Hi-Def Gaming experience, yet they spend absolutely no effort in also marketing it as the BEST Blu-Ray player on the market.  I am of the opinion that Microsoft made a huge mistake in not bundling the HD-DVD feature with the XBOX 360.  While ultimately it is not hurting the XBOX 360 right now, in the upcoming future, if Hi-Def movies do truly catch on, then it will find itself becoming absolete much quicker than the PS3.

In the meantime, the other consumer electronics companies producing Blu-Ray players might want to check out the PS3 and figure out how they can make a Blu-Ray as good as the PS3, that won't be absolete next month as Blu-Ray 2.0 or whatever specification they come out with next hits the shelves!!!

Fox Re-Jiggers 'Die Hard' Blu-ray Plans

Fox Home Entertainment has issued updated specs for its Blu-ray debut of the 'Die Hard' franchise, and in a change of plans, it turns out fans will be able to purchase all four films either together as a complete set or as stand-alone releases.

This configuration differs from the one outlined in Fox's earlier annnouncement that it would bring all four films in the blockbuster 'Die Hard' franchise to Blu-ray on November 20. Originally, the latest installment 'Live Free or Die Hard' was to be made available only as a stand-alone release, while the other three 'Die Hard' films would only be made available as part of a 'Die Hard Trilogy' box set.

Now the studio has released brand new specs for the box set, which has been renamed 'The Die Hard Collection' and is set to include all four films in the franchise. Furthermore, Fox now says it will also make the first three films -- 'Die Hard,' 'Die Hard 2: Die Harder' and 'Die Hard with a Vengeance' -- available as stand-alone Blu-ray releases.

Details for each of the individual films remain the same, with each 'Die Hard' flick enjoying a BD-50 dual-layer disc with 1080p/AVC MPEG-4 video and DTS-HD Lossless Master Audio 5.1 surround tracks.

'Live Free or Die Hard' will boast each of the supplements included on the concurrently-released two-disc standard-def DVD, plus at least one Blu-ray exclusive. Extras on each of the other three flicks will mirror those found on each title's standard-def DVD counterparts.

Retail for each individual 'Die Hard' release will be $39.98, with 'The Die Hard Collection' retailing for $129.98 (a $30 discount versus purchasing each title individually).

Source: Hidefdigest

Quoting pplchamp:

Quote:
Fox Re-Jiggers 'Die Hard' Blu-ray Plans

But is #4 still the PG-13 version?  That's a really dumb decision.

Quoting Calidain:

Quote:
This is my take on the PS3 gaming console.  Upon its much anticipated release, hardcore gaming enthusiasts and SONY fanboys flocked to retailers to spend an exuberant amount of money on the shiny new PS3 and grab as many release titles as they could afford and find at launch.  Within a couple weeks, realizing that there weren't a lot of great titles readily available they began playing around with the cool additional features of the PS3, including the ability to play Blu-Ray movies.  With the obvious lack of gaming titles, they quickly began to buy Blu-Ray discs, most of these consumers were probably completely ignorant of what the hell a Blu-Ray disc was in the first place, but since they had this incredibly expensive piece of hardware collecting dust in the living room, they might as well try to get some kind of use out of it.

Incredibly, Blu-Ray sales within the then stagnant Hi-Def format war (we'll come back to that in a minute) began to outpace HD-DVD.  Now some want to argue that Blu-Ray skews their hardware sales numbers by adding the PS3 into the mix of standalone Blu-Ray player sales and I can see both sides of this argument.  I go on record as saying that in my opinion, more than 99% of the people who purchase the PS3 are doing so as gaming consumers not as hi-def consumers, but ultimately it is just semantics, since the PS3 is a really good Blu-Ray player (in fact it is probably the best Blu-Ray player anyone can buy, which is ridiculous to be honest, since it is meant to be a gaming console, but I digress).  In the end the gaming consumer realizes that he has moved up into the realm of Hi-Def movies, bonus!!!

The thing I can't figure out is why the hell hasn't SONY capitalized upon this fact???  In their television marketing campaign for the PS3, they focus on the hardcore cutting edge of the Hi-Def Gaming experience, yet they spend absolutely no effort in also marketing it as the BEST Blu-Ray player on the market.  I am of the opinion that Microsoft made a huge mistake in not bundling the HD-DVD feature with the XBOX 360.  While ultimately it is not hurting the XBOX 360 right now, in the upcoming future, if Hi-Def movies do truly catch on, then it will find itself becoming absolete much quicker than the PS3.

In the meantime, the other consumer electronics companies producing Blu-Ray players might want to check out the PS3 and figure out how they can make a Blu-Ray as good as the PS3, that won't be absolete next month as Blu-Ray 2.0 or whatever specification they come out with next hits the shelves!!!

You have some solid points in this post!  Some of your points are slightly of base...numbers and dates wise.  For instance, the PS3 owners getting boring after a period of NO games statement.  The PS3 was first sold around mid-Nov.  The Blu-ray titles software sales beat HD DVD's in Dec.  That's about a 2 week period before Dec.  That's not a lot of time to get bored with a system.  Also, Resistance:FoM, RR7, and Marvel Ultimate Alliance was out at that time.  Therefore, it seems that people were clearly interested in more than one aspect of the PS3's capability.

The 99% statement you made seems to be just a random guess.  Do you have anything to support even an educated guess of 99%?  I ask this because of your earlier statement that the PS3 is probably the best Blu-ray player out.  People generally like that best of something (especially at one of the lowest prices for the functionality).  Therefore, what would keep these people from buying a PS3 as their Blu-ray player first.  Personally, I started buying Blu-ray movies about two months before the PS3 came out.  Many other people have done the same.

Just like Xbox 360 add-ons can easily be tracked for HD DVD movie playing ONLY, so can PS3 remote controls (just thought of that).  It won't include those that are fine using the controller for movie functions, but surely the remote control would indicate that movies are AT LEAST around equal importance of games.  Now, if we can just find out how many PS3 BD remote controls were sold...

Something tells me it's a WHOLE lot more than 1% of PS3 owners.  Really, the software sales around the world before and immediately after the PS3 launch tells me that.

EDIT: I forgot to cover your point about why Sony doesn't capitalize on the fact that the PS3 is a great Blu-ray player.  They are doing that in Europe.  They have banners in stores and stickers and titles that say something like "PS3 Blu-ray player and it also plays games".  I guess they figured that would hurt their PS3 sales in the US more than it would help.

"All of it comes down one thing.  If you can't defend your position with hard science and not something made up, you will not convince me of anything concerning this HD format war.  I don't refute things that can be proven through a scientific process (since some people have a hard time understanding what a fact is).  Just about anything else is just crazy talk."

Actually I did defend my position using hard science provided by DTS and Dolby in regards to the audio capabilities of the formats, which you then discarded. That's my point, when presented with information that doesn't support your position you simply throw it out as garbage regardless of where it came from. Much like you tout the video codecs used by BD as if HD doesn't offer the same. HD titles are encoded using the much coveted VC-1 as well. I don't care which format has more titles available with a specific spec, if the capability is there the choices will come. And BOTH formats offer all the capabilities you say favor BD. 

For the record, PS3 sales for August dropped 30,000 in a month (down to 130,000)...PS2 outsold it!

Here's the breakdown, the first number represents the monthly sales and the second is North American sales since inception...

Nintendo Wii - 403,600 (4.0 million)
Nintendo DS - 383,300 (12.7 million)
Xbox 360 - 276,700 (6.3 million)
PlayStation 2 - 202,000 (39.1 million)
PlayStation Portable - 151,200 (8.3 million)
PlayStation 3 - 130,600 (1.75 million)

Forgive my memory here but I want to touch on the "both format" argument and why some business analysts are now saying this isn't a war Sony can win, yet not really lose either...Let me explain.

As some of you have pointed out the development and productions costs of the BD format were and continue to be enormous. If the war continues too long Sony will have to seriously look at how long it can sustain the costs. Some analysts don't think they can hold out as long as Toshiba.

Some of the BD capabilities Sony has claimed from the beginning still have not come to fruition. One that comes to mind, and please correct me if I am wrong, connectivity and interactive functions. They still aren't where they should be at this point. Most analysts will agree that this might come back and bite Sony in the a$$. Many of their initial agreements were reached with promises that didn't turn into reality, including the delay of the PS3. Again, this could, in the future (if it hasn't already) hurt business relationships.

Because of the high cost of production Sony lost profit on every PS3 it sold at least up to the past few months. That is what, six to seven months of losing money on 1.5 million units sold. Couple that with the fact the BD players and the software is still way too high to produce for a long term commitment by anyone, including Sony.

With the Paramount/Dreamworks announcement and some believing Warner to follow suit, how long will it be before a majority of the other studios drop the exclusivity to BD? If others realize they can make more money by either releasing on both formats or switching camps where does that leave BD? Speaking of exclusives, Onkyo is to release a HD player soon and Denon has not ruled out a HD player in the near future.

BD was rushed to market before it was ready. This has left a bad taste in many mouths. Blu-ray, as a format took a substantial beating with both hardware and software upon release. People still remember that. It's not living in the past, it's simply pointing out human nature. As a consumer, if any company brings a product to market and it hits with a relative thud, you have to wonder where the commitment to quality is. Even though a number of problems have been ironed out there are still issues that need to be resolved. People will remember the bad before the good in nearly every situation. That is the way people work.

One last thing is this...Sony has a horrendous history of releasing proprietary technology in stand alone products. Really the only success they have had in the past 3 decades is in fact the PlayStation line of product.

In short, Sony will have a much harder time actually pulling out a true victory than Toshiba will. Some will argue that Toshiba is a stronger company financially and can actually sustain the monetary requirements much better than Sony can. Especially over the next 12-18 months. That doesn't really mean that BD won't survive but HD won't be exiting stage left either.

In part, this has been a small portion of the basis for my reason to go HD. If even half of the above turns out to be true it could lead to extensive problems for both Sony and the BD camp. Specs aside, Toshiba seems to be in a much better position to at least guarantee HD DVD doesn't lose...

Quoting Dr. Killpatient:

Quote:
You guys need to focus on one aspect of the HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray format war and then beat the hell out of that until you guys either give up or agree.  Then pick another aspect, rinse and repeat.

Doesn't work like that, mate, debates like these are rarely -- if ever -- "structured."  Expect more bickering until you get fed up and ban the whole lot of us who post in this thread.

Quoting Mark Harrison:

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Quoting pplchamp:

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Fox Re-Jiggers 'Die Hard' Blu-ray Plans

But is #4 still the PG-13 version?  That's a really dumb decision.

Last I heard...  Not sure why Sony and now Fox likes to send out the PG-13 or R versions of some films instead of Unrated ones which appear on DVD at the same time.  If you look at any sales list, those are the ones people buy.

Double dipping later on?